Wildfire officials are warning that much of Texas could see an uptick in wildfire activity this winter and into the early spring of 2026 as unusually high amounts of dried vegetation create prime conditions for fires to start and spread.
According to the Texas A&M Forest Service, grass and brush across large portions of the state have dried to a point where they have become highly flammable — a situation driven by last year’s above-normal vegetation growth followed by a lack of moisture. These dry fuels, combined with the typical wind patterns of winter and early spring, are expected to raise wildfire potential through March.
What’s Behind the Higher Fire Risk
During the dormant wildfire season, which runs through winter and spring, fires often ignite in “freeze-cured” grasses — dead vegetation that has dried after cold temperatures. Passing cold fronts during this season also bring periods of higher wind speeds, which can fan flames and make fires harder to contain.
Last year’s above-average grass growth means there is now an abundance of fuel available across many parts of the state. Areas located along and west of Interstate 35 — including the High Plains, Rolling Plains, and South Plains — now have dense grass loads that are susceptible to ignition under dry, windy conditions. Meanwhile, regions like the Hill Country and Cross Timbers also show exceptional grass buildup, adding to fire dangers there. South Texas and the Lower Gulf Coast currently pose a lower risk until grasses complete the freeze-curing process.
Wildfire Activity Already Above Normal
The Texas A&M Forest Service reports that wildfire response activity has been significantly higher than usual this season. From October through mid-January, fire crews responded to 434 separate wildfires that together burned over 11,000 acres — a level of activity about 136 % above normal for the period.
“Wildfire activity has increased across the state, driven by underlying drought conditions and above-normal grass production from last year’s growing season,” said Jared Karns, Fire Chief of the Texas A&M Forest Service.
Climate Patterns Favor Dry Conditions
Forecasters say that a La Niña climate pattern — characterized by cooler ocean temperatures in the central Pacific — is likely to persist into early 2026. Models from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center indicate that this pattern will bring warmer and drier-than-normal conditions to much of Texas from January through March. These conditions tend to suppress rainfall, reduce humidity, and increase wildfire risk during the dormant season.
Luke Kanclerz, head of the Texas A&M Forest Service Predictive Services Department, noted that atmospheric patterns linked to Southern Plains wildfire outbreaks have historically led to multiple large and high-impact fires that are difficult to control and that pose serious threats to both the public and firefighters.
Stay Aware — Most Wildfires Are Human-Caused
While large wildfire outbreaks tied to severe weather conditions account for a relatively small number of reported fires, they represent a disproportionate share of acres burned. Since 2005, such outbreaks have made up only about 3 % of wildfires but have accounted for nearly half of the total acreage burned in the state.
Officials emphasize that human activity remains the dominant cause of wildfires in Texas: roughly nine out of ten incidents start because of people. Residents and visitors are urged to stay alert and avoid outdoor actions that could spark a fire during periods of warm, dry, and windy weather.
If you see smoke or an active fire, contact local authorities immediately — early reporting and quick response can help protect lives, property, and natural resources. Texas A&M Forest Service also recommends checking the current wildfire situation and fire environment conditions.
